Russia is time to tell whether the course of the Ukraine war is about to change. But there is growing evidence that Ukraine has not been able to break through Russian defenses in the south. The major challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in Kupiask, Lymen, and Bakhmu in the region seem to suggest that the entire war may be headed for a settlement.
For this reason, the Biden administration hastily offered $20 billion in aid to the US Congress for Ukraine. This step is to boost the morale of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the country’s army. But this time, the US Congress does not seem to agree to this unusual request of Biden very easily. The reason for this is that it is not yet clear why the $20 billion is needed. Apart from this, opinion is developing in Europe and America about finding an alternative solution to this costly and difficult war.
The US policy of prolonging the war means the defeat of Ukraine.
Concerns about this are increasing. With the opposition close to a majority in the US Congress, they may balk at providing financial aid to Ukraine if it suffers a major disaster on the battlefield. For one thing, it is impossible for any politician in Washington to build public support for a war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, information about Russian forces‘ operations, particularly their movements in the Kupiyask region, is hard to come by. Although Russia has not called its operation an offensive operation, unconfirmed sources say Russia has deployed 100,000 or more troops and a large number of heavy weapons and armored vehicles in the region.
Most notably, a fleet of BM-21 multiple rocket launchers was seen moving toward the area. There have also been reports that Ukrainian troops have refused to fight there. It is also reported that this rebellion has been suppressed. These incidents happened in the last few days.
Zelensky hoped to regain control of the city after the fall of Bakhmut to the Vaghna group. But at the moment Bakhmut is not at the stage of taking control of the city. Ukrainians are trying to take control of the northern and southern parts of the city. According to the latest information, initially, Zelensky’s forces advanced from both sides, but now they are forced to retreat. And because of this, Zelensky’s dream of Bakhmut’s victory is about to turn into ashes.
The Bakhmut campaign created huge problems for Zelensky.
The defense minister may have to be removed. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleskyi Reznikov has played a front-line role in getting arms from Europe and America. None of those being floated to replace Reznikov have any experience or contact with war. Oleskyi Reznikov is likely to be sent as Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK. No one can say for sure whether the Ukrainian army is still supporting Zelensky or not. But new complications are emerging in Kyiv. If Ukraine’s military takes over, Zelensky may have to step aside.
To prevent the Russian forces from conducting any major operations, Ukraine is bringing reserve units to the battlefield. Many of these units are NATO trained.
When the Russians’ aim was to disrupt the attack by land, sea, and air, then it was not a logical decision to mix well-trained brigades with poorly trained brigades. It is reported that Ukraine has ordered mass evacuations of its people. At the same time, mines are being planted on bridges and roads to slow Russia’s advance.
On the other hand, the Russians have shown clear intelligence in battlefield management. The Russians have already made some attacks on Kyiv. This includes Ukraine’s intelligence agencies.
In the meantime, it is known that the soldiers of Bhagnar’s group who went to Belarus have started returning to Russia. The main reason for this is that Belarus refuses to pay their salaries and buy equipment for them. There is a possibility that many of them may be sent to Africa. Recently, the Economic Community of West African States decided that they would conduct a joint military operation to restore democracy in Niger.
This decision will create a big opportunity for Russia and the Bhangar Group
Because the skills of the soldiers of the Economic Community of West African States are as bad as the soldiers of Niger. They lack transport, communication, and supplies. Without the help of an outside major power, starting a war there would mean the continuation of another no-win war. So far, no one knows whether Putin will send Yevgeny Prigoshin, the head of the Bhagnar group, to Niger with his forces. However, Ukraine is certainly of central importance to Russia in geopolitical terms. Niger is not as important.
Rather than defeating an invasion, Russia wants to gradually weaken Ukraine and split Western support for Kyiv. Moscow’s war planners knew exactly when to do what. They now feel that there is an opportunity to launch a major offensive. We will have to keep our eyes on Kupiask for the next few days.
The issue of victory and defeat on the battlefield has stopped, but the fight in Ukraine has not stopped. Establishing control over the eastern Donbas city of Bakhmut is now considered crucial by Moscow. It’s been a year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many seasoned observers of Russia failed to foresee the dynamics of this conflict. They believed that Vladimir Putin had massed troops on the Ukrainian border to prevent the expansion of the European Union and NATO. They used to say that this is Moscow’s ‘heavy metal diplomacy’. But the assumption proved to be a failure and Russia started the invasion.
So far the war has produced many military, diplomatic, and strategic surprises. On the one hand, the determination of the Ukrainian forces to fight and the support of the European Union and the United States to Kyiv have surprised Moscow. On the other hand, China, India.